Data released on Wednesday in the US showed that Durable Goods Orders rose 3.2% in March surpassing expectations. Analysts at Wells Fargo point out the increase was due almost entirely to a surge in aircraft orders. They argue that private-sector core capital goods orders is what matters and are showing a continued reversal in demand.
According to new reports, data from the US reveals that Durable Goods Orders surged by a significant 3.2% in March, far surpassing previous expectations. Analysts from Wells Fargo attribute such a rise to a particular surge in aircraft orders. However, the core issue at hand, they argue, is private-sector core capital goods orders, which shows a continual reversal in demand.
The recent 3.2% rise in US durable goods orders in March has caused some analysts to grow increasingly concerned about the nation’s economic growth prospects. Given that this increase was almost entirely due to a spike in aircraft orders, many are questioning the overall strength and durability of this expansion.
Experts from Wells Fargo recommend disregarding the headline durable goods data, maintaining that the figure should not raise alarm. They argue that the considerable leap in March was largely due to a significant surge in aircraft orders after the first two months of the year demonstrated considerable weakness. It is not uncommon, they suggest, to experience erratic and wide swings in aircraft orders on a month-to-month basis.
However, some observers have expressed concern about the overall slowdown of private-sector core orders, asserting that this trend could signal a correction period in the goods sector of the economy as new demand falls amidst increasing economic uncertainty. They argue that core durable goods orders, excluding defense and aircraft, actually fell by 0.4% in March – marking the sector’s fifth decline in the past seven months.
As a result, some experts are beginning to wonder about the overall strength of the US manufacturing sector. Although it is true that there was a recent boom in orders for transportation equipment, many experts argue that market demand for such goods is sluggish, particularly in light of other industries experiencing a decline in orders.
For example, orders for machinery – the lifeblood of capital spending – dropped a whopping 0.84% in March, following an even steeper decline of 1.56% in February. Additionally, orders for primary metals fell by 0.63% in March, after a decrease of 1.65% in February. Although there are variations in these figures, the overall trend is clear – there is a steady decline in core durable goods orders in the US.
With this information in mind, it seems that the recent surge in aircraft orders is likely a red herring. Although headlines may tout the commendable rise in durable goods orders, the broader economic picture indicates otherwise. There is a slowdown in the private-sector core capital goods orders – one that suggests a continued reversal in demand.
Ultimately, concerns about a persistent decline in core durable goods orders have particularly troubling implications for the US economy’s overall growth trajectory. As new demand slows in the face of increased economic uncertainty, it is essential for policymakers and market participants to prepare for the potential impact of this trend on both the goods sector and the broader US economy.
