Economy seen expanding 4.5%-5.3% in 2023 – UOB

Enrico Tanuwidjaja, Economist at UOB Group, has provided valuable insights into the economic growth of Indonesia for the current year. The economic growth in all regions of Indonesia has been recorded to have increased from the previous year. The highest economic growth was recorded in the Sulawesi-Maluku-Papua (Sulampua) region with growth at 7.49% (year-on-year), followed by Java at 5.31% (year-on-year), Bali-Nusa Tenggara (Balinusra) at 5.08% (year-on-year), Kalimantan at 4.94% (year-on-year), and Sumatra at 4.69% (year-on-year).

This is great news for Indonesia as economic growth generates employment, boosts consumer spending and supports the country’s overall social and infrastructure development. Sumatra’s economy is expected to grow in the range of 4-4.8% in 2023, which is quite promising. Java, which is the most populous, is estimated to have an economic growth within the range of 4.8-5.6%. However, Kalimantan’s economy is estimated to grow between 3.5-4.3%, which is lower than their previous growth rate. Meanwhile, Balinusra’s economy is expected to grow within the range of 4.5-5.3% and Sulampua’s economy within the range of 7.2-8%.

Despite these positive developments, there are still risks that could potentially inhibit growth in the coming year. These risks include the cumulative impact of aggressive global monetary policy tightening, slower-than-expected economic recovery in China, and rising global uncertainty. All these factors might hold back foreign investments, which could affect the country’s economic growth. Additionally, inflation might remain high and elevated due to prolonged supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic.

According to Tanuwidjaja’s analysis, Indonesia’s economic growth in 2023 is estimated to meet Bank Indonesia’s (BI) target of 4.5-5.3%. While the growth rates look promising, there are several areas that Indonesia could focus on to ensure sustainable economic development.

Infrastructure is a key area that Indonesia needs to focus on to boost the country’s economic growth. Investment in infrastructure, particularly in transportation and logistics, could significantly improve the country’s logistics costs and stimulate industrial production. Thus, investment in ports, airports, railways, and highways should be given priority. This could also help Indonesia attract foreign investments, which could ultimately lead to a rise in economic growth.

Additionally, the country needs to address its human capital development. Greater investment in education and training could enhance the skills of Indonesia’s labour force and create a more productive workforce. This could make Indonesia a more attractive destination for foreign investors, who would find a diverse and skilled workforce ready to contribute to their businesses.

Indonesia has a unique opportunity to benefit from the recent changes in global trade patterns. The pandemic and the ongoing US-China trade war have created an environment where many multinational companies are looking to diversify their supply chains to reduce their reliance on China. Indonesia is strategically located and has a large, diverse population with a growing middle class, making it an ideal destination for foreign investors.

In conclusion, Indonesia is on the path to achieving healthy economic growth in 2023 despite the risks involved. The country has the potential to improve its infrastructure, invest in human capital development and take advantage of existing trade opportunities. These efforts could potentially make Indonesia a more attractive destination for foreign investors, further boosting the country’s economic growth in the future.


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