The Euro vs. Norwegian Krone (EUR/NOK) pair has been showing a bearish trend in recent days, as its value slid towards the 11.20 mark. However, economists at Société Générale predict that the 11.00 level should act as a floor for this pair. In this article, we will delve into the factors that may impact the EUR/NOK pair in the coming days, and how traders should position themselves to capitalize on these trends.
Technical Analysis of EUR/NOK
From a technical analysis standpoint, EUR/NOK has been trending downwards since the beginning of the year, after peaking at 12.00 in January. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for EUR/NOK is currently at 37.67, indicating that the pair is oversold. This suggests that a change in the trend, or at least a correction, may be on the cards soon.
Support and Resistance Levels
As mentioned earlier, 11.00 is expected to provide a strong support level for the EUR/NOK pair. In fact, the trend line since last August has been hovering around this mark. This level holds importance, as a fall below it could potentially push the pair towards 10.50.
Resistance levels, on the other hand, are seen at 11.48, the peak from last week. A move beyond this level could result in an extension of the up move towards the next potential hurdle at 11.70/11.75, which represents the peak of April 2020. The ultimate goal for bulls could be 12.30, the 76.4% retracement of the whole 2020-2022 downtrend.
Factors Impacting the EUR/NOK Pair
Several factors are shaping the recent trend of EUR/NOK, including:
1. Norway’s Economic Recovery: Norway’s economy is recovering faster than expected, backed by a strong vaccination drive and an increase in oil prices. The country’s central bank, Norges Bank, has already hiked interest rates and is expected to continue doing so in the coming quarters.
2. Eurozone’s Economic Uncertainty: On the other hand, the Eurozone’s economic recovery is facing headwinds due to the third wave of Covid-19 infections. The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance for the foreseeable future, which could impact the Euro’s value.
3. Oil Prices: The value of the Norwegian Krone is heavily influenced by oil prices. The Krone has been rallying in recent days, backed by an increase in oil prices. The price of Brent crude oil, which is Norway’s main export item, has increased from $63 per barrel in March to around $75 currently.
4. Risk Appetite: The sentiment towards risky assets, such as stocks, can also impact the EUR/NOK pair. A rise in risk appetite can push investors towards riskier assets, including the Krone, which could benefit from higher demand.
Outlook for EUR/NOK
The EUR/NOK pair currently seems to be trading in a range between 11.00 and 11.48. However, the oversold RSI, coupled with the support level at 11.00, could lead to a correction, or even a reversal in the trend. A break above the 11.48 level, on the other hand, could fuel further bullish sentiment, taking the pair towards the 11.70/11.75 resistance zone.
Traders looking to position themselves in the EUR/NOK trade should consider the aforementioned factors, and place their trades accordingly. While the outlook for the Eurozone’s economic recovery remains uncertain, Norway’s robust recovery could help the Krone gain further strength. Similarly, a rise in risk appetite could also provide a boost to the Krone’s value. However, oil prices could be volatile, as geopolitical tensions and production quotas could impact supplies.
Conclusion
The EUR/NOK pair has been on a downward trend in recent days, but its value seems to have stabilized between the 11.00 and 11.48 levels. Traders eyeing this pair should keep an eye on the economic recovery of both the Eurozone and Norway, as well as the geopolitical landscape surrounding oil prices. Finally, support and resistance levels, along with oversold technical indicators, could provide valuable insights into potential entry and exit points for traders.
