Leading Crypto Analyst Benjamin Cowen’s Take on the Current State of Bitcoin and Crypto Markets
Benjamin Cowen, a well-followed crypto analyst, recently emphasized that the Bitcoin (BTC) market, along with other crypto markets, may not have historical trends working in their favor. This comes along with the looming threat of a significant price pullback in the near future.
Cowen announced his observations to his impressive follower base of 751,000 on Twitter. He made a point to note that even considering the positive rally BTC witnessed in the recent year, it still appears to be tracing the same patterns seen during the bear markets of 2015 and 2019.
Bitcoin’s Year-to-date Performance Analysis
In a move to support this claim, Cowen shared a comparative chart that overlays Bitcoin’s current year-to-date return on investment (ROI) with the average of the same metric for the years 2015 and 2019. The chart vividly illustrates how closely aligned the BTC performance of 2023 is with the average of the two previous bear market years.
“I know there have been a lot of calls for ‘This time is different,’ but despite everything, BTC in 2023 is still closely tracking the average of 2015/2019.”
Source: Benjamin Cowen/Twitter
Given this correlation with past market behavior, Cowen goes further to provide a rough price prediction for Bitcoin. According to his analysis, Bitcoin could potentially see a fall to $23,000, which translates to a decline of approximately 23% from its current price levels.
“If we hit the lows of the 2015/2019 average, it would mean BTC going back to $23k sometime later this year.”
Similar Predictions for Ethereum, the Prime Smart Contract Platform
Just like Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) also follows a similar pattern according to Cowen’s analysis. He shared a similar chart overlaying Ethereum’s current performance with its performance in 2019.
“ETH in 2023 compared to 2019.”
Source: Benjamin Cowen/Twitter
In one of his latest video updates, Cowen detailed his belief that Bitcoin and other altcoins appear to be experiencing the same type of bear market bounce that they went through in previous cycles, rather than marking the start of a new bull run.
“My view is that until proven otherwise, the altcoin market is still no different than what we have previously seen. No different. The alt market bounced against Bitcoin in 2018, it bounced against Bitcoin in 2019, but by the end of 2019, it had come all the way back down to 25% of Bitcoin’s market cap… [The 2019 altcoin rally] bounced back up to the bull market support band at around 0.53, so that’s right around where the bull market support band is right now, maybe slightly lower, it’s at 0.52, so 52%… My guess is that the Bitcoin dominance rally will eventually continue. It might be backtesting that 49% to 50% level, but my guess is that it will eventually continue, and it’ll be because net liquidity starts to go back down again.”
From these interpretative remarks, we can infer that experts like Cowen see parallels between the current market behavior and past bear markets. Hence, the crypto markets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, could be lining up for a sizable correction in the near future.